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  CSPAN    U.S. House of Representatives    News  News/Business. Live  
   coverage of House proceedings.  

    August 22, 2012
    5:00 - 8:00pm EDT  

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>> it was important to connect the latino statement in the supreme court statement. the national election were 17 percent of the population right now. and not only now, but in the future. not only in the hispanic leadership agenda are connected to the communities. either remembers, chapters, councils. we are a vibrant community. every single town is in constant communication with our community to inform what is happening at the nation and in the communities. >> [inaudible]
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>> to reemphasize what hector was saying regarding the voting power of the hispanic leader, we want to bring this to the community. obviously it comes from the community because we represent grassroots on some of the different levels. it is important we have been engaged boating community as well. but they are informed around the issues and voting as a result of these issues and the best interest of themselves, families, and communities. in terms of commitment, we expect both parties to follow suit, to follow through on the agenda. we will present a full plate of what the agenda is to the republican convention, and also to the democratic convention.
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both parties have a stake in the well-being of our community and both have to respond to the community. it is critically important we did not hide anything from one group to the other. both parties are accountable to the community. that is really the answer to your question. it is critically important that we send a message at all times. >> the lady in the back. >> i am trying to get a sense of if you do not get the commitment you are looking for, with the gop stands with immigration, what is the next step? you said you are committed to the communities. does that mean an active campaign against a certain candidate? >> let settle this question. this is our recommendations. there will be occasions where both parties do not rise to the occasion that do have a platform that disagrees with one of our core principles.
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this will become the metric, this kind of what we will do congressional score cards in years to come. the next crop of books that get elected and sent to congress, we will -- we will look to them, not based on what the party was the actual books the record on the floor of the house and senate. we will also look to agencies to see what they do with regulatory power, and we will also look to the white house to see what they do with the power just granted by the electorate. this drives what we look to in the future. this puts the future elected officials on notice. for example, if the dream act does not get enacted, there are other forms we will look to in be mindful of to com. >> i would like to respond to that as well.
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the hispanic association of colleges and universities. we will continue to work with both parties. we will work with senator durban, and senator rubio was trying to bring forward some sort of legislation. [speaking spanish] >> we must keep everyone accountable on the issue of example and be very aggressive to make sure we had an example of yes or no. we cannot get an answer to a simple question that it's important for the community. in this process we will be very
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strong collaborating with the media to make sure the media is clear. >> i wonder sent to say this is basically to put people on notice, officials on notice about what is important to the hispanic community, what should we take of the fact of the omission of abortion from this agenda, and what we've told the convention about a constitutional amendment on abortion and incest? >> [inaudible] >> of how at hispanics poll on the issue of abortion. >> i think this agenda is a consensus agenda. the way we go about resolving this, there has to be substantial agreement by all the organizations to every position in here. some of the positions we have range from very progressive to
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very conservative. what you've seen of this document is amazing, because this is vetted by a broad collaboration. if you see something missing, it is because there was not substantial agreement. i know our organization is very focused on making sure there is opportunity for women to be able to make your own medical decisions, but that is our organization. the consensus we will each individually work on the issue separately, and that does not stop. this document is not just for the policy makers. it is for the community as well. we want them to be armed with information they need when they talk to representatives and ask for positions on issues. they have a great talking point book to start with an understanding what are key issues that will impact our community and get a better sense of how that number will respond to their interest.
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that is why it is not just something we will distribute at the two conventions but giving it out to all our members. we will make sure the community is informed about the issues as well. >> have you requested or have you been granted an interview with mitt romney or his vice- president? and if not, who is your partner at the republican party, or who will be the partner when you present the agenda through the convention? >> as you know, they are very busy with the republican convention. this convention starts on monday. we're not only going to request a meeting with mitt romney, we're going to request a meeting with the president and leadership of both parties.
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and this will be part of the process. it is very important, the role the media plays in the conversations to make sure the nation is informed on where the hispanic position is for the community. take o>> [inaudible] they seem to have a very wide range of [inaudible] >> we're talking to a variety of people. i prefer not to give you specific numbers -- specific names. we have contacted 10-15 people to make sure we had these conversations. we're going to be very open about the dialogue. we've been very aggressive. obviously when we look to the republican national convention,
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there are a number of issues to discuss. >> question. hispanic link and other publications. my question is, without the specific benchmarks, how will you hold people accountable? as an example, i was a part of image in 1970. we got access to the transition team personnel file. we have a lot of clout with internal federal people and found of the hispanic and black resumes in the do not consider file. we pulled them out and reclassified them. where is the pressure going to come, and what are the benchmarks' when you say you succeeded in what you did? >> let me give you one specific
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example when it comes to hispanics in the federal government. inopmopm in july released a rept that shows in the past year the increase of hispanics and the federal government has only increased 2.1%. this might be a significant number four gymnasts to win a gold medal, but not really a number to be very proud of it you are trying to increase and really make the federal government's to represent what america's all about. there are those metrics out there, and we are going to use them, and we're going to be thinking about maybe three issuing the report we issued in 2006 in which at that point during president bush administration, they had gained
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2% increase in hispanic inclusion in the federal government and we gave them an f +. there is certainly did out there we will be utilizing. because we are in non-partisan organization, we're going to look at this from the point of view of what is important to the community. one thing that is very important to the community is jobs. >> [speaking spanish]
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[speaking spanish]
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[speaking spanish] [speaking spanish] >> [inaudible] hispanic national bar association. >> another question.
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>> [inaudible] [speaking spanish] >> [speaking spanish]
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[speaking spanish] in terms of some of the meeting we may have in the context of this, it is part of the agenda. the point that is important to emphasize is we meet with all of the leaders of state. we will continue to meet with
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the offices of state to disclose the specific priorities in the case of the immigration, health, education. that is where we have these kinds of conversations. >> could you talk a little bit about their role you expect young latinos to play, 18-24 or 25, what factors you think will affect the turnout at the election, and what are you doing to affect the turnout? >> some of you may have seen their recent hispanic pugh study that just came out earlier this week. it is specifically addressing that of the growth rate of the young adult rate 16-24. that just supports the whole has been like rate population being the largest are ready minority group as it grows, and will
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continue. simply emphasizing the importance of the agenda, both parties and president of the united states in reaching the education goals. it ends the importance of the hispanic vote. many of us have smaltz program and we're emphasizing spanish with them. the language will continue to grow. it will be more and more important for politicians and for companies, all sectors. >> erica rodriguez. i will only do this in english. the latino vote is huge. half a million every year. it will be huge. the issue that affects them is voter suppression issues. there are lots of mobility taking place, whether we're talking about foreclosure or unemployment. there is lots of movement.
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registration is key. there are a number of organizations that have voter registration drives. this will be crucial to the accountability questions that have been raised. we know there has been lots of energy among latino voters and those that are about to turn of age. they are paying attention to a lot of different issues whether it is the dream at four other issues. it is a key time for us to be engaged as we possibly can be. >> a number of the members are part of the latino table, the national table and which recorded eight of the county level with border protection. we have a message. [inaudible]
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civic participation as down. we need to vote in record numbers. we need to remember it is not just about numbers. it is very important to participate. >> are you disappointed with president obama as immigration reform, and disappointed with the way he has handled immigration enforcement? >> ok. [laughter] >> we have been very aggressive with the president' -- >> yes, yes. >> and we have been very public on the issue. we were very disappointed the promised immigration reform did
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not come true. this is very well documented. i think it was almost one year ago when we requested a meeting with administration and we say there is still something we can do. the answer was we need to wait for republicans. we say we can do something to stop the deportation immediately. today the great work and passion is a good step in the right direction. >> i would say certainly there
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is a level of disappointment on some levels. if you look at what has happened of the past year, it has been very positive. the preferred action plan. the end of the 287g programs, and the fact of the justice department has gone involved with arizona. there have been steps in the right direction. think of we -- we've been asking for certainly i think it is a mixed bag. certainly happier with the way the administration has moved on immigration of the past year. >> [speaking spanish]
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>> that is pretty much it. we will take one more question. then maybe if some of you want to take questions aside with some of the voices we have in the room. one more question. this sunday we will head to the republican national convention, and after that we will go to the democratic national convention. we're here to collaborate. on sunday when we meet with the republicans, we would ask them to get credentials to the republican party and why there was no help. and this is just the beginning of a more instant collaboration.
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we're here to answer any questions that you may have. [applause] >> a program update. tomorrow general john allen creeps' reporters at the pentagon about the ongoing military operations in afghanistan. -- john allen briefs reporters at the pentagon. general allan has since ordered coalition troops to carry a loaded weapons at all times. they will speak tomorrow at 9:00 eastern. live coverage of that news conference on c-span2. route to the white house coverage tomorrow afternoon will be mitt romney in new mexico. his campaign saying this afternoon he will unveil an energy policy to achieve north american energy independence by 2020 and establish america as an
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energy super power in the 21st century tomorrow afternoon live at just before 1:00 here on c- span. >> i am not in the habit of breaking promises to my country, and neither is governor pailin. would we tell you we're going to change washington and stop leaving our country's problems for some on lucky generation to fix, you can count on it. [applause] we have a record of doing just that. the strength, experience, judgments and backbone to keep our word to you. [applause] >> you have stood up and what -- stood up one by one and said enough to the politics of the past. you understand in this election the greatest risk we can take is the same old politics was same old players and expect different results. you have shown what history
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teaches us, that in defining moments like this one, the change does not come from washington, change comes to washington. [applause] >> c-span has aired every minute of every major party conventions since 2004. the countdown continues with less than a week to go until the live coverage of the republican and democratic national conventions live on c-span, c- span radio, and c-span.org online. -- and online at c-span.org. senator john mccain and former governor of florida, jeb bush. democratic convention speakers include first lady michelle obama and former president bill clinton. eric lost andd by who'd covered the cbo press conference. what is the biggest news to come
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out of the congressional budget office outlook? >> the big news is about the dire warning that has been issued on what has been called the fiscal cliff. this refers to a series of automatic spending cuts and tax increases that are set to take effect in january. cbo has estimated this will cause a significant recession and next year. they are predicting 0.5% negative growth. that would be a recession by any measure next year. in may they warned of negative growth in the first half of next year from the fiscal cliff, but much deeper than what they had warned before. now looking at 3% contraction of the economy if congress fails to act on the fiscal cliff. >> what action might lawmakers take to address the forecast when returning in the fall, and what can they get done before the election and in a post-
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election lame-duck? to go the cbo director said just a few minutes ago that congress should act in september when it comes back, and acting sooner is better than later, because already the economy is the anticipating a fiscal cliff and growth is being stunted. unfortunately, the press releases from either side of the aisle right after the report, there remains a stalemate in congress. the automatic spending cuts that are set to take place are due in put in place because the debt super committee failed to come up with a bipartisan deal. just last month senator patty murray warned that perhaps democrats would allow the fiscal quick to take effect in order to pressure republicans to agree to what she said is the balance field that includes tax increases. republicans refuse to do this and what passed a measure that
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would avoid the fiscal cliff or least avoid the spending cuts by cutting social programs. >> the cbo director discuss alternative scenarios. what would -- what were they and how would the effect the economy? one is current law, and one as current policy. it looked at what congress has done in the past, and typically they have extended the bush era tax cuts. they have avoided this year -- severe drop in medicare payments that was scheduled to take effect, and they catch the alternative minimum tax. otherwise this tax would bite into the middle class. we would seek tepid one place 7% growth. the deficit will continue on are really unsustainable path. we would be at a trillion dollar deficit next year.
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over 10 years, 10 trillion dollars in deficits compared to the current law, about three trillion. >> here is the language, it will lead to economic conditions in 2013. we uncover this of it before. is that out of the norm for press conferences? >> it is this exact language that they do not declare, more of an agency decision. sometimes they have to be two quarters of consecutive negative growth, and perhaps this recession would take place with one very deep quarter. basically he is saying in the press conference and elsewhere that this looks like a recession. >> is production on unemployment was not so rosy either. to go that is right. the unemployment would rise
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from 8.2% to 9.1% next year. even without that happening, still looking at 8% unemployment next year. of course republicans are all of the president today saying he is to blame for this. >> erik wasson from "the hill." thanks for the update. we have a link to the cbo outlook. it is available on our website. now to the news concord -- the news conference with the congressional budget office projected a $1.1 billion deficit for this year, third year of a row. the briefing from earlier today is about 45 minutes. >> we will take you live to capitol hill. doug elmendorf briefing reporters on his outlook. just getting under way and live here on c-span. >> 7.3% of the economic output, down from about 10% in 2009. this is the force year in which
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the deficit has exceeded $1 trillion. federal debt will reach 73% of gdp by the end of this fiscal year, the highest level since 1950, and about twice since 2007. we are prepared baseline projections that reflect the assumption that current laws remain unchanged. they are designed to serve as a benchmark in considering changes. substantial changes to tax and spending policies are scheduled to take effect at the end of this year under current law. whether lawmakers will allow those changes to unfold will play a crucial role in determining the path of the federal budget and the economy. we have prepared projections under an alternative fiscal scenario. many policies will be this is down from 10% in 2009. this is the fourth year in a row in which the deficit has exceeded one trillion dollars. federal debt held by the public will reach 7% by the end of this fiscal year, the highest level since 1950 and about twice this year that measured at the end of 2007 before the financial crisis and recession. as always, we have prepared projections to reflect the consumption that general laws
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generally remained unchanged. those are designed to serve as a benchmark for lawmakers to use in considering changes. however, substantial changes to tax and spending policies are schedule to take effect at the end of this year under current law. whether lawmakers allow those changes to a cold, or alter them will play a crucial role in determining the path of the buckled budget and the economy. therefore, we also prepared projections under an alternative fiscal scenario, which embodies the fact that many policies will be continued. i will talk about the base line first continuing. i will talk about the baseline first and then turned to the alternative scenarios. among the policy changes due to occur under current law, the ones with the largest impact on the budget are the reduction of tax relief enacted since 2001 are set to expire.
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provisions to end emt expired last year. a sharp reduction take affect. automatic enforcement procedures specified by the budget control act to restrain spending are set to go into effect. extensions of unemployment benefits and a reduction in the payroll tax to social security are scheduled to expire. those sharp reductions in taxes and federal spending and increases in taxes will lead to a dramatic reduction in the federal deficit, trimming it by almost $500 billion next year. that would probably lead to a recession early next year. our forecast shows continued modest growth in the economy for the rest of 2012 but a drop
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of output of nearly 3%. we anticipate output will expand in the second half of next year and beyond. the unemployment rate will rise to about 9% in the second half of next year in our forecast under current law. those spending reductions will also lead to small deficits throughout the coming decade and a declining path of debt relative to gdp. our baseline budget projections remain unchanged show deficits close to 1% of gdp. the small deficits falls from 73% of gdp to 58% of gdp in 2022.
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that's what we think will happen during the baseline. projections under an alternative fiscal scenario that incorporates the following assumptions. all expiring tax provisions except the current payroll tax reduction are extended indefinitely. the index for inflation after 2011. medicare's payment rates are held constant at their current levels. the original caps on discretionary appropriations are assumed to remain in place. the alternative policies would lead to budgetary and economic outcomes that would differ in
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the near-term and in later years from those in our baseline. the deficit would exceed $1 trillion for 2013. deficits would remain at large the route the coming decade. revenues would be about 18% of gdp. federal spending would be much higher, about 23% of gdp. the increase in outlays compares to a historical experience relative to gdp for social security and the major health care programs. it is partly offset for all other federal benefits and services taken together.
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with such large deficits, debt would climb to 90% of gdp, higher than any time that shortly after world war ii. the economy would be stronger in 2013 and 2014. economic growth would be modest and we would not anticipate a recession. the unemployment rate would move slowly down rather than up. escalating federal debt would increase the chance for a crisis. the government will lose its ability to borrow at affordable rates. rising debt would hinder savings, reducing income relative to what would occur with smaller deficits. the policies assumed a path of federal debt that would be
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unsustainable. therefore, the key issue facing policy makers is not whether to reduce budget deficits relative to those that would occur under current policies but when and how. if lawmakers do not reduce the deficit, they will need to reduce that later. at some point we will need to adopt policies that require people to pay more in taxes, except less in government benefits and services or both. in closing, i want to acknowledge the more than 120 people at cbo involved in the production of this report. the staff of the joint committee on taxation provided the able assistance.
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i appreciate to those people for their talents and dedication. thank you. we're happy to answer your questions. >> if the fiscal cliff is avoided, the 1.7% growth is weak. why is that? >> the evidence suggests that the following financial crises, economies tend to have more severe slumps and more gradual recovery. then is the case following recessions do not follow financial crises. in the united states today, think demands for goods and services is being held back by a number of factors. the building of our housing stock leading to the financial crisis.
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there are a large number of unoccupied houses today, quite a bit fewer than a few years ago because it housing construction has been so weak. assault with good credit have been able to borrow for mortgages and a good rates. there is weaker demand for housing construction then normally coming out of recessions in the united states. another factor holding down economic growth has been restraint in spending in hiring by state and local governments. normally hiring is a factor boosting the economy and has not been the case this time. there has been a tremendous loss of household wealth in the stock market and the value of homes that people own.
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despite these factors, we and others have not been able to predict the nature of this recovery. there have been a number of developments that i think outside this country that have mattered as well. the situation in europe is of great deal of concern. that is a risk that would highlight and their problems have been a drag on this economy and have the potential to be a larger dragon. we do not entirely understand what is going on in the economy. we're in the process of producing a report on the slow recovery, work that has come out of dark forecasting worked that we are trying to explain to
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people what we do see going on and we hope to have that report out shortly. >> projections of going over the fiscal cliff seemed the worst than they were. why is that? >> relative to the report that we released in may, we have lowered our projection of economic growth for next year. that is primarily due to a reassessment of the underlying strength of the economy. the economy has been growing at a modest pace for the past few years. we have pushed down a little bit in how strong we think growth would be in the absence of fiscal tightening. fairly small shops can matter and large shocks can matter a large amount. -- fairly small shocks can matter. a large amount of fiscal
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tightening. that is a large shock, negative shock pushed the economy into a significant recession. yes. >> you mentioned the threat that we would lose our ability to borrow cheaply. when is the magic tipping point coming or the bond rates are going to spike up? bond rates continue to fall. >> interest rates depend on a number of factors.
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one is the amount of treasury debt. other factors are important, as well. rates are low right now despite the level of debt for a few reasons. the weakest of the u.s. economy. the preference by many investors to hold -- the rates are low because they reviewed as safer than many of the alternatives in the u.s. financial system. a second factor is the views of investors of our assets relative to assets in other countries. serious banking and fiscal problems in europe. people are moving out of european markets and into ours.
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so, between the situation in the u.s. economy and the situation in foreign economies, it is not too surprising that rates are low. in our projection, rates increased gradually. they do not rise very much because we have a recession in response to fiscal tightening. we think the federal reserve would undergo further action to stimulate the economy and that would hold down short-term rates and longer term rates. by the end of the decade, the rate in our production is back up to 5%, which is closer to a more typical level. it is possible for rates on our debt to spike upwards at some
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point. when investors have lost confidence in the government's ability, they can start selling the securities rapidly and push up rates very fast. that is a risk for us and we talked about. it is difficult to know whether there is a particular tipping point or what it might be. it depends on the amount of debt and also on conditions in the international financial system. and also on investors' expectations for policy-making. i think countries with high levels of debt have much less risk of fiscal crisis than
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countries with may be somewhat lower levels of debt or people believe it is rising. expectation about policy and confidence in the ability of a government to manage policy are important and that is a hard thing to quantify in some way. >> congress is coming back in september. what should congress do? >> we do not make recommendations. our responsibility to the congress is to offer them our best assessment on what will happen under current law and what might happen under alternative policies that congress is considering. they need to make the decisions
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themselves. we talk about different choices that the congress has. it will look in this report at current law base line and the alternative scenarios. that is not an either-or choice for congress. people who have worried about the short-term economic consequences of this sharp fiscal tightening have proposed extending some of the expiring policies and letting certain policies expire as written into current law. and then more hiring by businesses. we did in long report last fall laying out a collection of fiscal policy options, doing our best to assess the bang for
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the buck, how strong the economy would be for every dollar and every criteria can matter in the resources as well. we have offered to the congress i hope a clear sense of the different possibilities, but the choice will have to be up to them. we think that economic growth right now is being held back by the anticipation of this fiscal tightening. both in terms of the possibility of a sharp downturn but also uncertainty about what will happen. it is the expectation of a weak economy and the uncertainty of what might turn up.
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the sooner that is resolved, then the stronger we think the, it would be in the second half of this year and next year. we said it was being held down by about half a percentage point from the expectation of fiscal tightening. that remains our view and is consistent with views of forecasters. hard to know for sure because lots of factors effect the economy. >> your revenue estimate for 2012 is $133 billion less than the government collected. can you relate that to this chart that you have.
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these extraordinary numbers where you have historically high levels of people being unemployed for 27 weeks or more. this is the new normal with these high levels of long-term unemployment? >> we show a picture on page 31 of the report of long-term unemployment which is on extraordinarily high in this country. we do not expect long-term unemployment to remain at that level indefinitely. we do think that unemployment will remain higher than it would have been because of the lingering effects of the recession and recovery. people who lose jobs sometimes find jobs fairly quickly but sometimes not. when they do not, it has longer-
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term consequences for their jobs and for their employability. people lose skills or don't keep up with processes and sometimes employers might not be as good and that could be an employer's decision about hiring them. we expect the employment rate to be a little higher than it would have been in the absence of this recession and slow recovery. that does hold down output and incomes and tax revenue. in addition to the loss of labor input in the economy, there will be less physical capital because investments have been low in the recession and recovery. it is rising rapidly by it is that low level.
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we think that productivity will be a little lower than it would have been. there is a box in chapter two that talks about the lasting a fax of the recent recession and the ensuing economic weakness. we think the level of output at the end of the decade will be about 1.5% lower than it would have been. that corresponds to a reduction in revenue of about 1.5%. other things affect the forecast. the recession and the slow recovery matter for our future economic capacity. but that's not the principal factor leading to wide deficit under current policies.
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if we had economic growth that was a lot stronger, we would still end up with large deficits by the end of the decade under current policies. >> i wanted to clarify the magnitude of the fiscal tightening. would it be -- the largest reduction in spending or -- >> the largest reduction as a share of gdp in any single year since 1969. >> 9 to 69 would of been the vietnam drawdown -- 1969 would have been the vietnam drawdown? >> i do not know. the deficit will fall by 3.3% of gdp. the reduction in 1969 was
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slightly larger than that. >> so it would be bigger than any intentional round of deficits since we started to reduce the deficit 30 years ago. >> i'm not sure what is intentional. the biggest one-year reduction as a share of gdp. >> in the alternative, can you give any indication of which ones have degraded or have the least impact of economic growth? >> we have not tried to break down the pieces of fiscal tightening. most of the narrowing of the deficit comes from increases in
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tax revenues. the much smaller share comes from reductions in spending. just by the amount of dollars being moved, the increases in taxes probably have a larger economic effect than the reductions in spending. the effects depend on the policies. we do these analyses, we have different things for different policies. i do not know dollar for dollar. the alternative fiscal scenario has deficits that are much larger. changes in tax policy and changes on the spending side. >> getting back to the take away for congress.
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would you say this raises the stakes for them to act? >> i think the stakes of fiscal policy are high right now. i didn't know anybody who disagrees. we have very serious budget challenges and serious economic challenges in this country. on the decision that congress makes about policy, that can have profound affect on the budget and the near term and longer term economic output. i think the stakes are high in the fiscal policy decisions that will have to make shortly. >> can you talk about a change in the entitlement programs and costs for revenue? >> we have in this production
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our forecast for medicare spending. medicare spending has, and lowered the we expected this year. that has been true for several years running. over the past three years, we have marked down our projection in medicare spending for 2019 by about $100 billion for tactical reasons -- for technical reasons. for the program specific factors come we marked down medicare. the slower growth in medicare spending is consistent with
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slower growth of health-care cost more generally in the economy. in our projections for from march for the cost of the coverage provisions of the affordable care act, private premiums have been growing more slowly than they had been before. that was one factor that causes us to mark down our projections. we had seemed slower growth in medicaid as well. what is going on in federal health programs is not entirely clear. presumably the weak state of the economy is a factor. given the magnitude of the slowdown in national health spending and the timing of the slowdown, which seems to have
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started before the recession, we think there are structural factors at work as well.
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care system, they understand the imperative of their finding ways to work more efficiently. but but how to connect that set of activities going on with specific changes in the numbers is very important. we don't know the extent of slowdowns we have seen in the last couple of years will persist or not. other questions? >> your revenue in the fiscal year 2007 is greater than for fiscal year 12. since world war two, has there been a five-year timeframe where you have had revenues recovering when they have not been? does that cause you to change the way you look at the forecast
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for the next 10 years? blacks the revenues have been a smaller share of gdp during the past few years -- a >> the revenues have been a smaller share of gdp during the past few years. much of that reduction in revenue growth is a natural consequence of the weakness of the economy when incomes fall, taxes fall more than proportionally because we have a progressive tax code and people to slip to lower tax brackets pay a smaller share of the tax bracket. another big piece of what has happened in revenue is the policies that have been enacted. a 2% reduction in the payroll tax rate under social security has cost the government money. part of what is going on is a great weakness of corporate
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profits, especially in the financial sector but not just the financial sector. we don't know exactly what's going on there. the detailed tax return data to parse out the factors leading to certain levels of revenue, with some lag. we can see almost a total of the revenue being corrected but we don't have the data we need to figure out more precisely why. one factor in this projection is the expectation that the unexpected blow part of tax receipts fades over time. the tax receipts come back up during their normal relationship with the economy, conditions that will be in effect. if we are wrong about that, there has been a permanent shift and tax revenue could remain lower.
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one particular issue we talked about in this report is the labour share of national income. there's a picture in chapter 2 on page 43 that shows labour in come as a share of gross domestic income roughly equal to gross domestic product. you can see a gradual downward trend in labor and come and a share of gross domestic income, but one that has been quite sharp in this downturn. we anticipate labour in, will come back as a share of total income given the weakness of the labour market and a large number of people out of work. it is not too surprising wage growth has been constrained, but it is lower than it has been expected. we anticipate we will rebound to
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something closer to average in the past few decades. that might turn out to be incorrect. but we try hard to have projections be in the middle of the range for possible outcomes. we think there are significant risks of the actual economy performing worse or better than we have written down. >> kind of a growth question -- the potential for more rapid recovery is possible given the low level of resources -- you have a box in the left and they seem to disagree with that. could you explain why? >> i have not read what they have written and cannot speak exactly to that. we talk in our report about one of the upside risks to our
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economic forecast being stronger housing investment than we have written down. but an unusually large number of vacant homes -- we have also had a low level of construction for the past several years. we have extremely low mortgage interest rates and it's not impossible homebuilding will come back as strongly as we think. stronger business investments and hiring, businesses are sitting on liquid assets, cash, if they felt more optimistic about the future economic path,
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a favorable feedback loop which would lead -- [unintelligible] those are two risks one might think of as being thought of as nonperforming, but -- i wanted to get back to the difference between your outlook and why it has gotten worse. how much of it is due to the fiscal cliffs being steeper than you thought? how much of it is the general worsening of the economy? >> relative to our projection in january in budget and economic outlook, the fiscal cliff is now steeper. because congress enacted the
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payroll tax reduction to 2012, the extension of opening benefits to 2012, that type of deficit going into 2013 keeps the economy stronger. boosting the economy in 2012 without boosting the economy in 2013 has led to a larger falloff. that's why we're looking for a more negative effect. since that january forecast, we have lowered our expectation. i have not tried to parse those out.
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the magnitude of the slowdown in economic activity we are discussing for next year is significant. wises sharp tightening of fiscal policy, we are all looking to start a reduction in gdp at an annual rate of about 3%. that would represent a significant recession. we're looking at the unemployment rate to rise. the contrast is quite stark under the alternative scenario. the employment rate is about 8% by the end of next year. the total level of employment is about 2 million larger by the end of next year than it would be under current law.
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under the alternative fiscal scenario, we would have more jobs under next year than we would under current law. the difference is very stark. at the same time, the difference in budget outcomes and economic outcomes beyond next few years is very strong as well. it sent unsustainable path that will do harm to the economy by the end of the decade. >> in the next few years and later in that decade, the current law baseline and alternative fiscal scenario have different effects on the economy. >> how do you get to 2 million if the unemployment rate stayed
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around 8% under the current base line, 9%, how do you get to 2 million? >> the difference is 1.1% and the labor force is about 150 million people. 155 million people. 155% is not quite 2 million. another factor is when the economy is stronger, more people come into the labour force. something happens and the alternative fiscal scenario -- the stronger economy draws more people into the labour force than would be true under our current law based on projections. those extra people are employed and at factor tends to hold up a little higher. those pieces together add up to nearly $2 million.
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>> you are talking about the question of how we deal with the deficit. when will this become a bigger problem in terms of the direction five years from now? >> we don't know how long this can go on for. large deficits have a large number of consequences for the economy. they tend to reduce savings and investment. a second this a lead to larger interest payments and that makes it even harder to achieve certain budget outcomes. a third consequence is larger deficits reduce -- people
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sometimes talk about fiscal capacity. the ability to run that up if they need to. when i started, the debt represented about 35% of gdp before this reception and now represents twice as large a share. if it stays at the current place or if the country were to encounter some further need to to domestic problems, we would have less capacity to do that. as we discussed earlier, a larger debt means a larger fiscal crisis also. if -- when any of those factors will end up buying in some way that forces action is not clear. what is clear from international
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experience is waiting to make decisions until action is forced turns out badly. having to address a large in balance between spending and taxes at a point when a country really can't borrow anymore and that requiring changes and people don't have a time to plan for or adjust to. but there is no doubt earlier policy accessions is better than later policy actions. however, how one implements it is different because the last time people have to plan, the greater risk of knocking the slowly growing economy off track. there's a real trade-off in how quickly one implements policies, but agreeing on what the policy
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changes would be is better to happen sooner. >> this is the last one of these until january or february of next year. >> we release a new outlook in january of each year. >> he will be surveying the wreckage? >> we anticipate a very interesting and of the year. thank you very much for coming. [captioning performed by national captioning institute] [captions copyright national cable satellite corp. 2012]
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>> we will show you the news conference again at 8:00 eastern and you can read the report online. just days away from the start of the republican national convention in tampa, here inside the "tampa bay times form, nearly 444 delegates will be arriving this weekend and a lot of concern about the potential for tropical storm isaac. the current forecast says isaac is strengthening into a hurricane and doing that by thursday night, heading toward south florida, are arriving on the opening day of the convention. the fire chief, the mayor of tampa held a series of town hall events last week to discuss preparations for next week's meeting inext week's
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tampa. >> thank you. greetings to each of you. i also or the hat of emergency manager and am responsible for emergency management. it's somewhat like mission control. the mayor has stood up to make sure we maintain oversight of all the initiatives that will be going on and be occurring during this huge event. in addition to the grand party we're going to be having, i understand the regular concerns, issues and actions of day-to-day operations in the city of tampa will continue to go on and continue to occur. we have to maintain the health and fitness of that environment
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and provide real time information on what's happening in that arena. the office of emergency management has a specific center referred to as the emergency operation center. with my duties as the fire chief at emergency matter, i could not do this without the help of a very professional and capable staff. i have my chief of operations who is responsible for our operations and all of those units out there that will be responding. chief nicholas cicero and my rescue chief who is responsible for moving all of those ambulances in the event there are any situations or concerns. he chairs the health and medical subcommittee, which has looked at every respect of posture and every consideration we will
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have. one of the major concerns we have at this time is we eat are in a season in which is our most and, whether season with respect to hurricanes, tropical storms, critic activities and is bad weather patterns. any emergency operations center, and he respected community, and many members have already gotten up and spoken, each of those divisions and apartments will have representation in the emergency operations center. they will have the ability to provide real-time information, command and control information with respect to what is going on with the boots on the ground. whether it's in the convention center area or are operational posturing in the city.
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severe weather provides a concern, so we will have the national weather service. the national service will be there to provide real-time data on atmospheric conditions and weather patterns that might impact our community as well as the rnc. it's a very hot during this time of year. one of the main concerns we have had is with respect to everything going on, persons are going to be dropping because of the index. we have stood up major hydration stations throughout all of the viewing route and parade routes. we have a number of port let's in the event person's need to relieve themselves. we will have a number of part let's and our chief of staff because we have so many, they
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are for the most part -- we will have a first-aid station out there. but if they're not recognized early on as having been impacted so we can get those persons in to the first-aid station and get them rehydrated or move them to a protocol. as i told you earlier, in addition to emergency management and providing that mayor real- time information on the care and fitness with respect to the entire city, every other community might think is going to be impacted, i'm here to tell you you can expect no degradation in service. my assistant chiefs have been
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very instrumental in decentralizing emergency response vehicles to make sure we have a couple response particles in place to get this unit see with in a fire truck or rescue trapped, we have your back so you can rest assured on that. just a couple of reviews for what the emergency operation center looks like. it's going to be activated and any time we have these types of events do you see and your screen, whether a natural disaster, flood, man-made disasters or any thing, civil disturbances, whether it's a super bowl or any of and we have a big dance. we have stood up to provide that the oversight real time with respect to the health of the rnc. we provide information on what's
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going on with public works, fire, all of that. so we can be expeditious in making certain those areas are operative as you have become accustomed to during these processes. this is the outline of what it looks like. ever respective departments -- every division in a community, including our private partners and not for profit partners are included to make a decision about those services. the lower area, and you will get more is the call center. americanized it's going to be very easy for the emergency operations center to become overwhelmed with a bunch of concerns about the car and see. we have this call center, 12
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functional positions to provide all the information you're going to need. the city of tampa concerns, whether it's water, sewer or whenever, run that through them. these are some of the many units, divisions and departments that will be represented. all the way from the american red cross to fema, the emergency operation center, the national weather service, because of the weather patterns we will be experiencing, the revenue and finance critic capital situation expenditures we might have to entertain. even the state department will involve the tampa code enforcement. and those persons -- india that we have an electrical outlet or any concerns there as well, erse
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-- our solid-waste department and dod partners as well. they will be there to provide guidance and oversight. the main number of what he to be familiar with is 813-274-7700. in the event is a city concern, that the number i want you to call. the flyers the mayor has cause to go out -- you will continually get those things for specific information. use that number to contact about specific information regarding that initiative. doubt on the water, severe weather operations, that has a propensity to happen. the be increased coordination with the national weather service for optimal reasons so we think the information out and to the mayor and coordinate with the rnc committee so they can
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make informed decisions on any operations, any type of events that are going to be surrounding their event. this will be continuous and on going. conditions we feel certain our community needs to be aware to recognize any event this might have. will he to monitor your local news channels and radios for any information that may be going out. now i'm going to bring up the alley. the medical station -- we have tremendous partners in this community in the salvation army is one of those partners that provides us tremendous support to ensure health and fitness. under the crosstown that all of those areas insuring in helping with distribution of water, hydration material, making
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certain the porta-potti is are enough and will be providing oversight as well as well as working in our first-aid station. >> i'm not in the habit of breaking my promises to my country and neither is governor palin. when we tell you we're going to change washington and start leaving problems for some other generation to fix, you can count on it. [applause] got a record of doing just that, and the strength, experience, judgement and backbone to keep our word to you. >> you have stood up one by one and said enough to the politics of the past. you understand that in this
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election, the greatest risk we can take is to try the same old politics with the same old players and a expect a different result. you have shown what history teaches us. a -- defining moments like this, the change when he does not come from washington. the change comes to washington. >> c-span has aired every minute of every party convention since 1984 and our countdown to the convention continues with less than one week to go and tell our live coverage of the republican and democratic national conventions, live on c-span, c- span radio and streamed online at c-span.org, starting next week with the gop convention in new jersey governor, chris christie and john mccain, and former florida governor, jeb bush. plus, first lady michelle obama and former president bill clinton at the democratic
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national convention. >> next up, from our weekly spot light on magazine series on "washington journal" -- the vanity fair national editor. spotlight week's takes a look at the pages of "vanity fair." todd purdum, national editor for the publication talks about his president. can i have you expand on one of the sentences. you say the greatest presidents -- notable business failures if they have business experience at all in. guest: mitt romney makes the argument the business-like thinking is what washington needs, but the only problem is
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we've never had a successful president that is a successful businessman. we have head successful businessmen that the president, blood stated not turn out -- but they did not turn out to the president's -- successful presidents. host: for example? guest: herbert hoover, the first president bush. host: the president's not good business and good at president? because there were a number of them, from abraham lincoln, to harry truman. abraham lincoln had a store in new salem, ill., that he incurred what he calls national debt. the skills that make a great ceo are not necessarily the skills that make a great
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politician. we think of charismatic ceo's like jack welch of ge, for example. in many ways that is not typical model. the typical model is more colorless, works long hours, masters a certain set of tasks and to them over and over again. the things we think about as important in politics like charisma, being able to motivate people, they turned out to be not necessarily important qualities in ceo's. host: our guest talks about the hiring of the president, his piece in the pages of "vanity fair." if you want to talk to him about the business past of presidents, here's your chance to do so. you talk about the skills that a ceo has.
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you asked to talk about the people that work for a ceo and you say there is a difference between the people that work for a ceo and work with the president in the white house. guest: yes. you have some board and instead you can record and it. when you're a president or a governor, you have to work with a cover. when governor romney's father was the governor of michigan, he said it was like being the quarterback of the opposing team. that is not a skill businessmen require. they get to do work in private. their word is law. they do not have to persuade a constituency in the way a president or a politician does. of course, the bottom line is a different matter in government than it is in the private sector, and it does not always involve profit and loss.
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it might involve the intangibles like the common good or general welfare, constance we enshrine in our founding documents. that is a different document. host: you gave an example of outgoing president harry truman, and incoming president eisenhower, and what he said about eisenhower pulled the term. -- eisenhower's term. guest: he said he will say do this and do that, but he was under-selling eisenhower. he rose in the army because he was a brilliant politician and he also saw -- studied dramatics. he had a good sense of how to play the political game and he rose quickly in the heat of world war two to the highest levels of command from having been a colonel at the beginning of the war. host: it does senator on governor mitt romney.
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what did you learn as far as history is concerned? guest: he would have a deep learning -- learning curve, and it will not be like bain capital, as the view from the oval office is not the same as the view from the corner office. the evidence so far is when he was governor he did not like dealing with legislature, getting to know people in the back rooms, or taking them all and stroking them. he likes to say he did not inhale in politics. he spent one term as governor. he would have a lot to learn about washington and politics in general. he has proven to be a quick study, and as a consultant at bain capital his experience was to get in there, as ross perot used to say, open the hood, find the problem, and diagnose the problem. i've no doubt he would apply the techniques he has learned in business to define the
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problems, but the question is how effective he would be at persuading other people to share his view. host: todd purdum of "vanity fair" joins us for discussion on the hiring of the president. jacksonville, florida. jonathan. democrats line. caller: i have a comment and question. first, i believe that a president's duty is outlined to be very general, and each president is trying to promote what they want him to be for a particular time, four years. i feel people care about more than one issue and they stick to one thing they want us to vote for them for. i was wondering if you come to a come had any idea if there could be a system where it is more than just two people, and they're just shooting each other down in presenting one idea? guest: you mean more than two
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people competing for the presidency? caller: yes, party is putting behind -- party is putting their efforts behind more than one candidate. guest: everybody keeps thinking that politics are in such a state of dysfunction that there would be room for a third-party candidate. nobody has emerged in this cycle. the last time we saw one was ross perot, and he made a difference in 1992, and arguably ralph nader made a difference in 2010 we seem to be stuck at the moment in a two- party system -- 2010. we seem to be -- 2006. host: are their present -- lessons from ross perot? guest: we saw that he self-
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destructive a little bit in the heat of the campaign, and his streak of paranoia came to the forefront. i think he is probably in-in that what you would not want to have a -- a negative in what you would not want to have a business person did. host: republican line. caller: i'm sorry. i was getting groggy as i heard what you're talking about. this guy, look, i am a republican. i was really excited, and can you hear me? guest: we hear you? host: let's move on. edison, new jersey. independent line. caller: good morning. i agree with the guest there.
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i do believe that it does take a bit more to be a president. you can not be a business man mitt romney is counting his business experience, but the presidency involves a cross- section of business, religion, science, diplomacy, charity. in a corporation, you're basically dealing with numbers. in the presidency, you're dealing with numbers, and people's lives -- welfare programs, setting people to war. -- sending people to work. i do not think mitt romney has it. obama has been there. he is been a senator. he has a wider world view, growing up in other places. he has experienced another world view. he has been in the presidency for four years.
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host: let me back that up from twitter, saying do ceo's not have the skill sets to adapt to their environment, including a change in management style as they climb the ladder? guest: i think that is true, but the caller makes an excellent point in that there is really no preparation for the presidency that is completely applicable. it is such a unique job. that is why former president stick together in the world's most exclusive club. you could argue that the best indication you have is our president has performed, and certainly president obama dinh four years has learned a lot about how to him -- in four years has learned a lot. host: you wrote that there have been soldiers, teachers,
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farmers, ranchers, and one professional taylor. guest: the professional taylor was johnson, -- and he was acquitted just as president clinton was. one of the extent things i found in the research of this case is the most successful presidents have all undergone and overcome some kind of adversity of one kind or another. abraham lincoln's mother died when he was very young. he had no formal schooling. even fdr, a rich set of privilege, suffered paralysis, and it gave him some the deity had never had before. john f. kennedy was sick for much of his life with warble elements and back problems. -- with horrible elements and back problems.
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he underwent a lot of testing under fire. one of the interesting things is the most successful presidents, by and large, have something like that in their resume. mitt romney has been pretty lucky with a straightforward life. host: president obama? guest: you could argue via dislocation. he grew up fatherless -- in a stable support system from his grandparents and went to excellent schools and a privilege in that sense, but he knew when it was like to pay off student loans and had a normal life until about 10 years ago. at the 2000 convention in los angeles, barack obama had no reason to be there. he was an illinois state senator. he showed up. his credits card was maxed out. he did not have credentials did
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he could not give in, and he left after two days. eight years later he was the democratic nominee. that suggests something. host: battle creek, michigan. kevin. democrats line. caller: thank you. first of all, being a regular person and being a millionaire, it seems more americans are not millionaires. more americans do not come from wealth. it just goes against logic to elect a president that is a millionaire, wealthy, and does not have the type of view of most american voters have. two, the covering of the campaign seems that the media is being intellectual liars. they want to make it seem like mitt romney says a bunch of lies, and republicans say a
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bunch of lies, but the democrats do it, too, and you have to say one side does it more than the other. i feel the republicans lie more than the democrats, but there is some truth to that. people elect rich people. i guess my main point is people electing rich people would be counter-intuitive, or it would just go against everything that we believe in. why would us, as regular people, working every day, you let someone that comes from wall and is not -- wealth, and does not strive to work hard in his life? guest: he makes a good point. president johnson used to say when he was a teacher and was in college, he always one of the ham and egg sandwich, but he always ordered the aide said which because it was cheaper. some of the president's -- a decision which because it was -- egg sandwich because it was
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cheaper. some of the president's that been the most sympathetic have been rich. i thinking it's an interesting point about the two parties. i do not know that i would say the republicans lie more than the democrats. that is a hard case to prove, but i do think the republicans are more willing to fight dirty because they do not believe they pay a price for it. the democrats, always having jiminy cricket on their shoulder, thinking they will get in trouble if they did not play by the rules, and i think we've seen in campaigns the republicans are willing to throw harder punches. host: north carolina. jim. republican line. caller: good morning. although i have not read your article yet, -- are you still
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there? host: go ahead, sir. caller: although i have not read your article yet, the general thesis based on what you have said so far seems to be that just because a candidate claims business experience, based on the history of other presidents, does not mean it will be a great presidency. however, having said that, since he chose paul ryan as his running mate, which clarifies his position on the role of government somewhat, and would you not agree, or would you disagree, that the current moment in our nation's history, if we ever needed a president with a wide range of business experience, now is the time? guest: i think it is fair to say that we are at a moment in
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history where we need a person with a clear-eyed view of problems, a willingness to get down to the numbers and deal with the data. those are qualities business people have. a person who is willing to face a problem honestly, was the best business people are also probably willing to do because they know the market will punish them if they do not in a way. what i think is interesting is governor mitt romney has not particularly shown those qualities in his political career. he has tried to stand down his views when they became politically inconvenient. you cannot argue that he is taking a strong stance for or against almost anything. that suggests he might then be as decisive as he would portray himself to be. his collection of congressman paul ryan, who was in some ways a serious person and a washington player of note, it suggests to me that he would be
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responsive to come were beholden to the segment of the congress that cumbersome paul ryan represents, the extremely conservative, tea party-fuelled group of people that simply believe there is no reason to raise taxes for any reason going forward, and everything that has to be done about getting our fiscal house in order as to be done by cutting the budget. i do not think either party thinks that is possible. host: how do you factory in the olympics? it is a social event, a business event. guest: it is all those things, but what he does not like to talk about in his stewardship of the saw light olympics is how much support he got for -- from government -- stewardship of the olympics is how much support he got from the government. it is not like to talk about that.
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host: as to a larger issue of skills transferable to the president? guest: that is a role that might be more applicable then governor of massachusetts that would suggest he could manage diverse constituencies, operating in the public glare. i think it is probably one of the better points on his resume. he does not like to talk about it because of this other reason. host: lee. independent line. lafayette, louisiana. caller: good morning, guys. i went to ask a question about leadership. -- i wanted to ask a question about leadership. how can a leader be an effective leader, when no one is willing to work with them, and how can they get them to work with them, it to refuse to work with them? another common todd akin two i was waiting on the phone, in -- another comment, that came to me
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as i was waiting on the phone, as the republican party goes more and more to the right, and the democratic party goes more and more to the left, does this climate not seem to drive up another party, such as a moderate party that would simply just be created on its own? host: caller, thank you. guest: you think that it would. he within people would be fed up with extremes and won a common-sense -- you would think people would be fed up with extremes and what a common- sense approach, but it is pretty hard to imagine a president in either party getting bipartisan support in congress for complicated problems. governor mitt romney, i'm sure tom would hope that he would have majorities in both houses,
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but we have seen as president obama struggled in his first two years, the does not a good recipe either because you would have to deal with strains and stresses in your own party and he would be trying to placate his conservative base in a way that might hurt him with the broader public. he make a good point. we all keep hoping and waiting for a reasonable caucus to emerge, and it does not seem so. host: this e-mail from mike -- what about their advisers, we elect the man, but advisers make a big decision. guest: that is true. governor mitt romney would be dependent on an ally on the divisors he would have, but it is hard to say who it -- rely on the advisers he would have, but it is hard to say who those advisers would be. i think that is a big question about him.
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host: here is samuel on the democrats' line. virginia. caller: the statement was made earlier that president obama was rudderless. as the first black president of this nation, it has been characterized by a number of people that social psychologically, and a genetically, the fact that he is black has been taken away from him. sir and people have been endeavoring to take that away from him. i find that very insulting. i have never seen a president assault of more than this president has been. i believe it has something to do with his race. i really do. it is really getting very bothersome to me.
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guest: i agree with you very much that he has been insulted and often been in trouble because of his race. i did not need to employ an insult myself -- i know it did not name -- i did not mean to imply that he was fatherless. i meant to say that he only met his father one time in his life when he was 10 years old around christmas time. otherwise, his father was an absent figure in his life. he had a stepfather and his grandfather but he grew up in the same way bill clinton did without a strong day to day male presence in the household. i think that left him with certain scars. he said it was something that probably protected him because if he had grown up with his
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father and a house, his father had a lot of problems, like drinking, he might have had more turmoil than he did by having his father 3,000 miles away. your point is well taken that this president has endured extraordinary insults'. i don't think he has been in any doubt mentally about his own identity. there is a reason that he went to chicago which is the capital of the american black diaspora. he married a black woman and is raising two beautiful african- american daughters. he is a pioneer in every way. host: here is st. louis, republican line, go ahead. caller: all the rest of the callers are insane polemicist. they want to make crap out of nothing and say how everybody
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is extreme. we need to work together. both of these parties have always been in favor of the interest of the american people. the history of the parties are diametrically different. one party can about as a result of 1792 and thomas jefferson and andrew jackson and the other one came about as protest african-american, pro labor, pro civil rights in 1854 in wisconsin. we need to go back and the republican. we need to go back to that europe -- we need to go back to that era. i believe the party i am a part of is not the party of theodore roosevelt and more.
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if there was a progressive, it was a republican. guest: that's an interesting point about the history of the party. the republican party has a lot to be proud of over its long history. it was the republican party's support for civil rights that made it possible to pass the landmark law. many scholars and commentators have pointed out that that part of the party technically began to die in 1964-1968 and has dwindled since then. there is really almost no such thing as a republican moderate left in congress. the caller is right about the history. it is not too encouraging to think we will have that kind of moderation anytime soon. host: what about the reference to mitt romney's time as a mormon missionary in france.
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guest: that account gives him membership in the club of having gone undergone adversity. he does not have much in his resume that can say to people he has firsthand experience of what it is like to be pork or even ordinary. there's nothing wrong with having a privileged life. the first president bush had a privileged life as did the second president bush and many people have had that. it is just that you could argue that having a lot of adversity teaches you things that you host: los angeles, independent line. caller: hello. a did not realize i was on. i have a couple of questions.
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first, he made a reference to how republicans fight stronger than democrats. democrats have the conscience -- the jiminy cricket on their shoulder. did the cricket on their shoulder tell the democrats that mitt romney was a felon? mitt romney's skill set is far more experienced than what barack obama has brought to the plate. guest: i did not say the democrats never play hardball. they did not quite called governor romney a felon.
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it was said that if he failed to actively disclose sec forms that could have been a felony. it is different than saying he might be a felon. i try not to have a fix to view. i try to keep open minded. president obama has now been president for four years. you can say he has learned more about the president in the last four years than when he got there and i don't think he and governor romney share the idea of what it takes to be president. host: pennsylvania, democrats line. caller: hi, i have a few comments to make about politics. i am one that tries not to get
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between the two parties. i am a democrat but we are all americans. we all should work together because there are people out here that need help. this has been known for a long time. having carter or presidents past, it seemed like every president we have had in office, as you said, todd, do you mind if i call you todd. a few callers have mentioned about mitt romney not having the ability to take on the presidency. you said he was more privileged.
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i wanted to get your opinion on this -- i read your book and read president obama's book about his father -- and he does come from a family, and existence that was very difficult for him. host: what is your question? caller: do you think after writing your book and everything, do you believe our president right now would be the one to run our country with his background and knowledge? guest: as a general practice, i don't endorse but i think it is fair to say that president obama has shown himself in the
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face of extraordinary circumstances to be an effective leader who has gotten things done. republicans think he has gotten too many things done whether it is health care or welfare reform. i don't know what kind of president governor romney would be. to only think that's fair say is the public has an idea of what president obama would be like as president because he has been president. in the next four years, obama should know more about how to handle the office. host: has a been effective? guest: he has succeeded in almost everything he has done. he has had a career of extraordinary success. i would not bet against governor romney because he is very determined who has a record of succeeding at what he sets out to do.
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host: mesa, arizona, republican line. caller: i did not know this magazine was still being made but i have never seen such a hit job on one man in my life. as a mormon, i am offended. you should hear this stuff they say about us. he said he had to take federal money for the olympics. that was right after 9/11. i have never heard such dirty stuff come out of one person's mouth like what they did to bill clinton, calling him a racist. in his book, he tells about his mother fighting health care and that is shown that it is a lie. there are so many things about the president.
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the kennedys have lots of money and you never -- and you democrats are so liberal. everything you have said about mitt romney, he is a bishop and the people he has taken care of and counsel. few people make fun of our church like that is nothing. if you looked into the mormon church, you would see the number of people he has helped. guest: i can only say that i don't want to get into an argument about everything you said. i have high respect for mormons. i grew up in illinois 20 miles from where there was a lynching. there happens to be a large mormon community and my home town. i know a lot of mormons and my
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admiration for the talent and generosity of that denomination is great and i would make no comment about governor romney working with the church. it is clear he is extremely generous and i'm sorry you seem to feel i am such a person. i do not share your view that i have done anything but respect his mormon faith and his work. host: here is milwaukee, wisconsin, and are independent line. caller: thank you for taking my call and good morning. i'm a 24-year-old veteran. if i was to vote last election which it did not, would have voted for obama. the upcoming election, i am leaning more toward mitt romney. my biggest question for you is
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how can you say you don't think mitt romney has enough experience as far as leadership ability towards or running a company when we are a capitalist society? we're all sves to their jobs. how can you justify saying that he cannot turn around our deficit better than obama? guest: i have not set any such thing and i do not know what mitt romney would do as president. he cites his business experience as a qualification for the presidency so often and with such intensity and to assume it is a given that that would make a good president and it may be true it will. up to now, we have not seen anyone who has. we have not seen a successful businessman who was a successful president.
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governor run the's business was a particular kind of business. he was not running general motors. he was not running a company that made things. he was running a company that took investments that were highly leveraged to make money for the investors in his company. sometimes he probably create jobs and sometimes he probably cut jobs and sometimes he exported jobs and sometimes he created something new. his business was making money for himself and his investors. it was not creating a product or service. it was making money. he was an investor. those skills are not necessarily the same as the skills of running a large enterprise or running something where the bottom line is nonprofit. --t: there's a texas story it talks about governor romney's
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business experience. guest: president obama has his trouble and some severe ones. his efforts to fix it have not been very successful. a left criticize president obama and said he is way too cozy with big money people and he did not go nearly far enough to try to reform the way american business works. he cannot be both things. it cannot be an ideologue for private enterprise and be a tool of wall street. i think he is somewhere in between. host: you can find the work of todd purdom in "vanity fair." what is your next piece? guest: not quite sure.
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host: we thank you for your time. >> thursday, on "washington journal," nela richardson discusses the obama administration proposals to help homeowners with mortgages. then, the president of the international -- national organization for women talks about her great parties this election year. later, a correspondent -- part of the series about on monday. "washington journal," live every morning at 7:00 a.m. eastern on c-span. >> the congressional budget office is projecting a 1.1 trillion -- $1.10 trillion deficit. this is the fourth year in a row the deficit is over $1 trillion. the cbo director earlier today released the last report before
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the presidential election and said the country will slide into recession in 2013 if congress fails to reach an agreement to cancel deep cuts to spending in january. see that tonight on c-span at 8:00. >> earlier today, nasa scientists held a briefing on the mars rover curiosity, announcing that the rover had successfully made its first test drive. in addition, the landing site had been named bradbury landing, in honor of the late ray bradbury, author of the "martian chronicles." the rover landed on mars a little over two weeks ago and is on a two-year mission to study whether the plan could have sustained life. this is 15 minutes. -- 50 minutes. jetelcome to nasa's propulsion laboratory. i am with the media relations office. the rover is settling well into
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its new home on mars. i guess we could say it is really on a roll right now. we will hear from panelist -- a panel of scientists and engineers. first, i want to venture -- mentioned that it has been declared a by california governor jerry brown, who will be visiting jpl later on. i want to start with our panel and introduce them. first we have michael meyer, the lead scientist for the mars exploration program in washington. we have the msl project manager for the jet propulsion laboratory. we have the physical investor of the -- investigator of the chem cam instrument from the los alamos laboratory in new mexico. next is the lead rubber plant at -- leader rover planner at
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jpl. also the principal investigator from chem cam in new mexico. last, the deputy project scientist at jpl. we will start with a special announcement from michael. >> before i make the announcement, which i think all of you will enjoy, i would like to show you a short video. this video was made on the eve of the arrival at mars -- this was in november of 1971. in the video, you will see a couple of people you might recognize -- bruce murray and carl sagan and ray bradbury. if we can look at that video -- >> i was hoping, during the last few days, as we get closer to mars and the dust cleared, that we would see a lot of marcion's standing there with huge signs that said, bribery was right. -- bradbury was right.
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[laughter] >> i will keep this short. i would much rather listen to our scientific friends here today to tell us about what is coming up this week. everytime i get a group of people together and i howl like this -- you cannot escape me. lucky is a short thing. it sums up some of my feelings about why i love space travel, why i write science fiction, why i am intrigued with what is going on. my philosophy about space travel -- i will read it to you. it is very short period the times we walked between the years -- there is a place half in the sky where in the green of leaves we reach an almost touch the sky. if we could reach and touch, we
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said, it would teach us not to, never to -- we ached and almost touched that stuff. our reach was never quite enough. finally we touched got scuffed, hishand -- - god's cuff, hem -- we hope, by stretching, that they might keep their lives, their hope, their heart, their flesh and sold. but they are there and standing in a whole. we will at least one day stand across the void, across the universe and all, and measured out with rocket fire at last have god hand's come down the other way to measure manse and give him -- i work for that. i sat in the rocket, hoping that
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an inch of good is worth a pound of years. a keen to hear a voice -- we have reached that. [applause] >> today, we had the first roving yastrow biology -- astrobiology on mars. today would have been ray bradbury's 92nd birthday. he has already reached immortality with the hundreds of short stories he has written and nearly 50 books. his books have truly inspired us.
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"the martian chronicles" inspired our curiosity and open our minds to the possibility of life on mars. in his honor, we declared the place that curiosity touched down to be forever known as bradbury landing. i kind of like the name. for one, it is a majority vote of the science team, having been inspired by ray bradbury. landing is any event, not an object. it harkens back to the time when ships landed on the shores of other, new worlds to explore. this place might, in fact, with its water reference, be even more appropriate. i would like to choose -- i would like to relate to you one of my favorite scenes in "the martian chronicles," when the
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humans peer over the rim of one of the martian canals. they see, reflected in the water, marcion's, and themselves. -- marcion's and themselves. as we look for to one of those days, i would like to pull -- go to pete, who will tell us about our intrepid marchand, the rover curiosity -- martian, the rover curiosity. >> i would like to, before i begin, have a small round of applause for ray bradbury. [applause] he was a friend of jpl, as well as the space program. several people, including myself, had the honor of meeting him. a very appropriate gesture. you are looking at a smiling, ecstatic project manager. we have completed -- everything is going extremely well, really, extremely well.
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we have no issues we are working on with the exception of the wind censer, which is still in progress. if i can have the first slide, please. i would like to take you back to the day before landing. richards said on the state and talked about what the plans were going to be after that sunday evening. i would like to know what has happened. in the first week of planned activities, we were going to do the antenna deployment, the massive deployment, the acquired panorama -- we would start a few days later to finish the flight software change. we have successfully completed all those activities. next slide, please. this is kind of the longer you going forward. in early august we were going to get the first images and finish the engineering checkout. we completed that activity. in mid to late august we were going to complete the pale the checkout. we have done that. we are going to check out the
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sample system. we have not quite completed that. we have done a short drive today that we will talk about in a second. with that activity we have completed the characterization face. -- phase. in that plan, there will be an intermission between cap one and kaptur. that intermission is likely to be a little bit more -- and cap two. that intermission is likely to be a little more extended. the scientists have decided we will take an extended drive, since we now know the system works well, and then we will complete the sample system checkout later. we ought to be able to complete a scoop sample in mid to late september, and the first sample in october and november. a little more science, and we are basically on plan with what
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is an extremely well-behaved flight system on mars. that will tell us about today. >> let it straight to the good stuff and bring up the image from today. -- let's get straight to the good stuff and bring up the image from today. curiosity had its first successful drive on mars. [applause] this -- coupled with yesterday's steering check, it means we have a fully functional ability system on the rover. in this image you can see a touchdown point, driving away from that location to, and the sketch remarks to the right and left of the initial -- scatter marks to the right and left of the official position. the soil underneath the rover confirms our expectations that the soil is firm, great for mobility. we are not seen too much
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sinking. we should see some sailing ahead. i have another graphic showing the animation of the drive today. if we can move to that. this is our simulated -- dissimulation and visualization tool. we went forward 90 centimeters to image the wheels, then drove an additional distance to total four and a half meters. we did our first turn in place. look at the wheels as we are driving -- check them out. they are turning half of the 120 degree turn, turn in the remaining distance, and then backing up to and a half meters. this final location places us in a good spot to do some good science. we have the area to the right of the rover were regency with the instruments. the key things about the drive or that we were able to do one for revolution of the drive actuators and the forward direction. we were able to turn and see the initial measurement unit telling the rover how it is heading.
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it is working properly. we were able to back up another full revolution of the drive actuators. we were able to get the data and everything -- it looks perfectly normal. we are excited to have this maelstrom behind us. we see this is performing very well. we are in a great place to do some signs. with that, i will pass over to roger. >> i will talk about the check out of the chem cam instrument, and some of the first signs with it. it is the laser instrument that fires high-energy pulses and targets up to 25 wthe away. that produces plasmas that provide chemical composition of the samples for us to understand. we are going to cut to a video here, which was to a demonstration -- will show a demonstration.
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you see a four and a half inch telescope -- the laser is right behind. we will show a demonstration where this instrument will be used to fire at an iron pyrite target. the laser beam is invisible, but you see the plasmas. at ten hertz -- you will see how it can shoot. we will show a still image of the plasma. this was done at terrestrial pleasure, in los alamos. the plasmas are more confined in a terrestrial atmosphere than on mars. if we show the next image, you will see the difference. on the left, d.c. what a plasma looks like in a terrestrial environment. -- you see what a plasma looks like in a terrestrial environment. then we changed it to market pressure. you see the size and brilliance
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of the plasma at mars pressure. on the right is what is actually happening on mars. as you -- the short of this is that we are getting great signals so far. basically,chemcam includes a remote micro-imager. this is designed to take close up, high-resolution image is to provide context for these analysis thought we had with lasers. it can also in the other areas. until we pull out of the camera and start using that, this is the highest resolution imager on the rover right now. basically, in the next image we will show the rock that we first analyzed on the surface of mars. this was a rock called coronation. it was selected because it was at a nice distance from the rover. it had a flat face.
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the rock itself was only 3 inches across, and it is about 8 feet from the instrument. we sent that the command on saturday night. the spectra came back early on sunday morning. we had a very excited teen to look at this. actually, the way we did this, we took an image the day before and pointed it so that the image you see on this picture is a little bit off. the next day, we got it right in the middle. you see an inset of where it hit on the rock. i will show one like that a little later. the next slide we will show is the spectrum from this rock. in short, we got excellent signal. we saturated one emission line slightly. that shows what a good signal we are getting from mars. the spectrum consists of at 6
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-- 6144 channels that span the wavelength. that covers the ultraviolet, with one spectrometer, a violet and blue range with another spectrometer, and the visible and near infrared range our eyes see with the third spectrometer. it covers all the rainbow colors plus a but on both sides. you can see labels on their -- a number of a mission-that represent different elements. -- e. mission outlines that represent different elements. you can see sodium, potassium, magnesium, iron -- there are also trace elements we can pick up with this instrument. the inset on the upper left shows titanium and manganese, which are quite lower in composition. it also, if you will look, you can see lithium pointed out as
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well. that is less than 50 parts per million. there is a lot of detail we can get from this instrument. we are excited about that. one more thing about -- the inset in the center shows the peaks of hydrogen and carbon. the carbon peak is from the atmosphere. there is nothing big there. the peak on the left shows hydrogen. this is a sequence plot that shows every single laser shot as a separate spectrum. we did 30 shots. the first shot is shown in the white. that curve shows that we have a hydrogen in the first shot, then it went down, we barely see it in the second, and it went away. on the very surface of this rock we had hydrogen. another thing we saw on the surface was an enhancement of magnesium. we saw this on coronation. we saw this on all the samples
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we have looked so far, including the calibration target. it may be indicative of something from the dust. we have to look into this more. after this rock, we kind of told the science team that they were free to start choosing some targets. they went and selected the goldburn scour, an area where the thrusters dug-in a little bit with the -- blast. they discovered a small outcrop which was of interest because it looks as if it may have layers in it. if we can go to the next image -- this image shows a camera image in the center. it is labeled with the locations of the remote micro-imager, that is, that of chemcam, pictures that were taken. these show high-resolution. we targeted this for imaging and
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we targeted goldburn locations to, 3, and for for the laser. we shot the laser at the center of these images. the results we got there are pretty consistent with what we saw on coronation. the coronation results really look like a baseball -- basaltic composition. that is not too surprising for mars. that is the major igneous rock on mars. the fact that goldburn shows basaltic , but it -- composition is not surprising. we see there are rock fragments that look like they were basaltic as well. it is a sedimentary rock, it incorporated some of these basaltic fragments.
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some are angular, and some are more rounded. that is the story. we have also shot a couple of other rocks. one of them did give a different composition, but it is still consistent with an igneous rock. we hit more of the mineral n, but it's still consistent with the composition. because of the small spots we can shoot, we can get single mineral grains. we need to move towards getting rafters and lines can so we get more analysis of spots on single rocks and can tell. we are still working on checking those things out. i'm going to show a final image, which is actually that goldburn number three -- this cuts between a goal -- before and after image showing what the rock looks like just before and just after shooting it with a
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laser. you can see where the laser shot. there you have it. we will be looking forward to doing lots more science with the chemcam instrument, but we are excited how it has gone so far. i will turn it over to joy, who will talk more about the overall science status. >> i will go over more specifics about what we have done, and what is coming. the engineering cameras are now fully checked out and are used to measure atmospheric dust, winds, and clouds. taking images -- we have also performed a thorough check out on eight of our tent scientific instruments. as we described in previous press briefings, the radiation monitor, the weather station, the neutron a subsurface sounder, and the laser spectrometer and images are already taking scientific
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messages. they are measuring the first active measurement recorded. the chemcam team is poring over the data. we have several days of all day, all night weather data we are studying. we checked out the remaining two instruments -- the analytical laboratory. we are about to go into this intermission period, which -- during which we have three major activities. we will have to separate days where we do some sam atmosphere checkouts. the first time we do that, that'll be the first time we turn on at its pumps and the laser spectrometers. we will have a campaign to do some of the advanced capabilities of the camera, like the precise focusing over the range that it can focus on,
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taking a long-range, 3 d images by positioning the rover at a different parking spot and using those spots like i positions to get the 3-today range -- 3-d range. third, the laser spectrometer, we will do more characterization to understand how well the optics are aligned and how sensitive the spectrometer is. after the intermission, and we are currently planning to drive towards an area 400 meters to the east. that is the junction we have john pitcairn -- shown pictures of before. we are thinking of a few more days before we start driving toward said, examining the scours from the sky crane thrusters. using the cameras and other instruments.
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on the way, we would like to stop as soon as we encounter scrutable -- scoopable fine material to check out the sample handling system and getting samples and. the first material would be fines -- we would be trying to clean out that acquisition by doing that several times, dumping it out on the ground and then taking a sample to put in. we might likely hold off on doing our first contact science with ap access until we get to that area. that is to be determined. we may encounter something that we want to do that on before we get there. the stop at the scoopable fines is likely to take a few weeks. all of this is fairly uncertain
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in terms of timing. when we finally get there, we want to study the outcrop and take a look at the contacts between the two -- three different terrain heights. maybe that is where we would decide to do our first drilling into rock. after that, we had for mount sharp. that will be a much longer drive, with probably a few brief stops along the way. that is going to take several months before we get to that point. that pretty much sums up what we have done, what we are doing. we are ramping up from the initial checkouts under our belt. now we are doing complicated activities each day and working hard on the strategic plans. what the order of activity should be, how long everything will take. i will handed back to rose mary for q&a.
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>> i would like to start with a couple of questions here in the auditorium at jpl. we have a few reporters on the line. we will get to them as well. if you have a question, please raise your hand tight and wait for the microphone to get to you. and identify yourself, your name, your affiliation. the we have a question? let's go in the third row. >> steve from cbs. anybody who wants to chip in -- how significant is this landmark moment, the first drive, as short as it might have been? >> it could not be more important. unless the rover roads,-- roves, we have not done anything. so it is tremendous. it is a really big moment. >> we have got an amazing team that built this very capable rover. we have a lot of confidence it
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will work, but you are always nervous until you get the data. seeing that everything was nominal, as pete said, all the actuators' work, all the instruments, the initial measurement unit that tells us that it works -- we can now focus on checking out a higher level behavior ofs, which will allow us to do a thomas -- but thomas adjustments to see -- autonomous activities. we have an amazing rover that will be able to traverse to mount sharp. >> as you know, in the past, when the product had difficulties, one of the developmental issues was with the actuators. i think we need to recognize the actuator supplier and the team here at jpl for what has been perfect performance so far. not just driving, but also the arm, the mast, and the antenna. so far they have been just
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perfect in a very demanding environment. >> do we have jpl another question have? raise your hand. let's go to the -- do we have another question at jpl? raise your hand. let's go to the front. the first question is eric from "nature." >> my first question is for joy. if you could give me a more specific time line for the intermission -- i guess, in terms of the specifics -- when intermission would begin, when the first atmospherics' study would happen, when you might begin the drive? >> all i can say is that we are beginning it tomorrow. it will spend several days.
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we cannot know exactly what days we will do each then. i believe that we are going to try to do the first atmospheric 18. on tsol the subject to change as we do the planning. things can change the order in which we do things. the best answer i can give you is, in a period of a few days, the order of a week is what that intermission will last. that is the best i can do. >> on the order of a week later, you might begin? >> on that order. >> as a quick follow up, how quickly do you think you might be able to have a trace gas result? is that something you will be able to know in a day or two? >> the first atmospheric measurements done by s.a.m. are
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checked ats, not meant to be definitive measurements. outs, not meant to be definitive measurements. you'll have to stay tuned for what they have to say about those measurements. the first one is very short integration time. they will learn from those how to set up the measurements for good, careful analysis. >> so it is not possible that you could maybe see signs of methane in this first checkout? >> i will leave that to the s.a.m. p.i. to report. for now, it is meant to be a check out. >> thanks. >> another question on the phone -- from the "los angeles times." >> i am wondering if you could talk more about the three types of terrain -- what do they look
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like, is it just that weird bedrock you are looking to drill into -- before you get there, any sense of what the story is, geologically? >> we have seen a very interesting cartoons by the science team trying to look at different possibilities for what the etiologic situation is there. they are in a hypothesis stage. it is too early to say, but what we can see is that there are different textures to the terrain's in terms of cratering and the look of them, their albedos. it looks like we should be able to encounter bedrock. that is a really good reason for going there, to be able to examine three different materials that are in place that looked like we could sample
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rock. not much more i could say about it at this point. it does look intriguing. i do not know if anybody else on the panel wants to add to that. >> ok. let's take our next question, again, by phone. from reuters. >> thanks very much. i have one quick follow up about the drive. i wanted to know if indeed it took 30 minutes, as we were told yesterday, that that would be the likely duration of it. i have a couple questions about chemcam . thanks. >> the drive started at 7:17 a.m. here. with all the imaging, it took roughly 16 minutes. the majority of the time is spent taking images. the rover probably only drove for four or five minutes of that motion. >> thanks very much. for roger, that -- one of the
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things you talked about earlier was chemcam. you are curious if you would see different spectra as you go deeper into the rock. i am wondering if you have any composition changes. i was not sure about this, but goldbern scour?ld b >> coronation was not part of the goldburn scour. it was to the right to the rover, where it was sitting when it landed. ur was off to the left. if you the that coronation, d.c. the rover's shadow -- ucb rover's chatham. the other was whether we are seeing differences in the
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spectrum as we go into the rock. it did show hydrogen at the very service. -- surface. the hydrogen is something we're interested in. we will look into that further. there were other variations -- one other measurement we made, this can be a transition between looking at one grain to another. we have to look at that a little bit more. >> before we go back to another phone question, i wanted to make sure -- any reporters at jpl who have a question, raise your hand and we will get to you. in the meantime, let's take a question from leo at irish tv. >> thank you. a quick question about coronation and the specter -- you said it is a basaltic composition. are you saying this is basalt,
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but not as we know it, or is it standard basalt, and where you could find it on earth, seeing that you know so much thanks to this instrument? >> we are working on the calibrations in a big way on chemcam. we have a number of types of calibrations we have to do. wavelength calibration. this spectrometer has much higher sensitivity to the wavelengthed than anything we have used in this region before. we are making sure that that is characterized. the wavelength changes when the river changes -- rover changes temperature even slightly. we also have a spectrum library we built up before we sent the instrument up. we have those to compare with. right now, we are looking qualitatively at that spectrum
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and matching it up against a spectrum that we have from the laboratory. it looks like some of the basalt -- we will get into the quantitative aspect in a bit. chemcam is less quantitative than the apxf instrument on board for many elements. we are looking forward to when apxf gets deployed and we can make cross celebrations that will make us more sure of our competition. -- cross-calibrations that will make us more sure of our competition. they complement each other very well. apxf tends to have more accuracy overall. it is a great duo that we have. >> and next question is from ken kramer at "space flight magazine."
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are you still there? you can go ahead and ask for a question. ok, we will come back to him if he reappears. the next question will come from robert perlman. are you there? >> i am. looking at the tracks, can you quantify how deep or how shallow the track marks are, for example, if a wind storm came by, would they be blown away? what does that tell you about the nature of the land you landed on? i have a follow up. >> we can say how deeply we sent. the cleats are a cm tall. we dig into the terrain with the cleats. that is absorbed by the rest of the wheel. we do not see much since age beyond that. if you were on the soft sand, you would see more sinking. we can tell, looking at these
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tracks, how firm the soil is. but i do not think i can answer a question about the dust and how they might covered up. >> it will depend on what the winds do, whether there is fine material that will be deposited on the tracks or not. if i am not mistaken, the tracks should be somewhat similar in- depth to other tracks. there should be a difference in material composition, but if you treat them as similar, and there were many sols when the tracks would start to disappear -- i do not expect this would happen rapidly, but maybe after many months or years they would get harder and harder to see the tracks. >> thanks. a quick follow up with regards to bradbury landing, is it defined by the borders of curiosity's wheels, where it sat
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and landed, or does it encompassed the whole area where it is sitting? >> we were thinking of using the wheel marks as the corner posts for bribery landing. -- bradbury landing. >> thanks. >> i am told that ken kramer of "space flight" has reappeared. >> can you hear me? i hope we did not get disconnected again. my question is for roger -- wonder if you could talk about how many targets a day you can analyze with chemcam? i understand is 14,000 overall, but in a day, how many can analyze? >> that 14,000 number came from looking at the number of days or sols we will be on in the nominal mission, which is 700- some. the maximum would be 20 analyses per day. that is how we came up with that. it will be a long time, a while,
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anyway, before we get to do 20 analyses in one day, but if we arrive at a new site after driving some distance, you can imagine an outcrop in front of us -- we could perhaps target something close to that. it really depends how crafty and how skillful some of our uplink people get at devising the sequences. they are getting up to speed nice the. >> i was wondering, after you get the data, how quickly are you able to analyze it and decided you were seeing? >> the process, once the ins -- information comes down, we have a downlink lead -- that person is responsible on our chemcam team for putting the data on a computer and starting to check out what files we did receive
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and, secondly, are they looking okay? we look at the images we receive, the specter we receive, and other things, such as a non-laser dark spectrum to subtract the background. the things to pull together. in about a couple of hours, they have gone through and catalog what we have seen. we get ready to present that at a science kickoff meeting in two hours of the downlink. we usually do more analysis after that, but that is the initial. >> we will take a question from space.com. i see we have a question after that from jpl. >> this one is probably format. you guys have any idea, once you start to drive, make your first big drive -- how long are this
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first drive is going to be when you finally had out from the perimeter, the landing site where you are now, and head towards the first big science target? 10 to 20 meters, or do you guys have more confidence now that you could do longer drives? >> that is a good question. we will start out with fairly modest tribes, in the 10-meter range. -- drives, in the 10-meter range. then we'll check out the ability of the rover to image obstacles and identify hazards to keep itself say. we'll check out visual a dodge ridge, where it is able to calculate how far it moves so -- visual odometry, where it is able to calculate how far it moves. we want to make sure it is all working. once we get that check out and have confidence, we will start expanding the drive distances,
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going to 20 meters, 30 meters, 40 meters. 40 meters is the edge of our horizon we can see right now. that is where we get good stereo data with the images we are taking. as we continue to have more confidence in the system, we will extend those drives and start driving beyond the horizon, out to the sense when hundred meters or so per sol. >> jumping back to jpl. a question from the woman in a row there. >> any johnson, -- amy johnson, kcs tv. can you explain a little bit more about what we are actually seen in this photo? >> this is a very historic photo. there is only one place on mars for use start. you can see exactly where you landed. to the right, you can see to it dark spots. those are the scourer marks
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formed from the landing engines. the cetus symmetrically on the other side. in the tracks, you can see a circle, the turn in place maneuver. it steered all its wheels and performed a turn of 120 degrees, pivoting around that point in the middle of the circle. then it backed up. the other thing we can point that is that we see different patterns in the wheels. we have intentionally put holes in the wheels to lead a unique track that we can use for visual odometry, if we are in sand dunes where we do not have a lot of barack features, we can use those patterns. -- barack features, we can use this patterns. there is a small rock under where we landed. the steer actually to check out some high currents. you can see in the animation -- it tweaks out to the right. we were able to confirm that we were on that 9-centimeter-
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tall rock. we were able to correlate that with the data we got. does that answer your question? >> yes. thank you. >> it looks like we have time for one more question. go ahead. >> the president of the united states lauded jpl. the governor of california will be here today. everything seems to have been working perfectly up until now. it seems to the textbook. give us an assessment, several weeks into this, as to how your team is working -- a sol is a different date and what we are used to. what is the attitude like now that you have captured the nation's attention and the imagination of so many with this rover? >> the team is tremendously excited. everything is working. we have gone through starting in
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the middle of the night, going through daylight, actually over the next couple of weeks we will move back to being on the night shift as the difference between the earth day and the mars sol ships from day-day to day-night. the hard part is tampering to the excitement so that people get enough, that they are in it in the long haul instead of just waiting anxiously for each image to come down. it is fantastic how well everything is working. everything that we have promised with this rover going to mars, going to a place that will interact with water -- we have high hopes this will prove out this region and tell us whether it was ever potentially patentable. >> i would not be doing my job if i did not exercise a bit of caution here. we are 16 days into a two-year mission.
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we have not put the arm on the ground yet. we have not exercised a sample gathering capability, which is a key element of this science mission. as good as it is going, as wonderful as it is, we are still only at two of the level- one requirement boxes. one, land on mars. we have a long way to go before the mission gets to it's full potential. the fact that we have not had any early problems is fantastic. managing expectations -- we have got to keep doing this as the team has been doing -- methodically, properly, prudently so that we do not cause us of our own headache. -- science,aid
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engineering, enthusiasm, cautioned. . >> that wraps up the two and a portion. thank you to our palace. after this, we will replay the visuals and the news conference. a lot of information is on -- online at nasa.gov/nsl. we have a short clip from 2009, when ray bradbury visited and was right here in this auditorium. he congratulated them on the anniversary of between mars rover, spirit and opportunity. some of the drivers were very excited to meet him and wanted to express the gratitude for him for inspiring them. we have a short video remoras of the day to share with you. >-- video remembrance of the day to share with you.
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[applause] >> having ray bradbury here was incredible. he really has been one of the voices from the very -- from very early on for going to mars and exploring it, long before we knew how to do it. he would take us there in our mind. >> that me introduce you to the other people who drive the rover. >> just like that. >> when he came to the operations room and we showed him the model of the rover, the large scale panoramic pictures we have taken, the actual photograph of the service of the planet -- it was like watching
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him experience it as a child, almost. the wonderment. he has never lost that wonder for mars. he has always conveyed that in his books. >> we are going to have to hire you. >> showing him how we control the rover, letting came to drive the simulator across the surface of the planet and see the reality of that was very rewarding for us. we could tell how much it meant to him to see this, which was once only fiction, and partly because of his vision and sharing that vision with us is now a reality. we are actually there. >>'